Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Jerusalem, 07 February 2024.
-Analysis-
CAIRO — Certainly, it’s not the New Middle East that Shimon Peres — who was one of Israel's founding fathers, and served as prime minister and president — heralded after the 1993 signing of the Oslo Accords with the Palestinian Liberation Organization.
In Peres’ vision, which he offered in a book titled The New Middle East, residents of the Gaza Strip would be able to export flowers to the world — every country in the region would cooperate and present a new model of coexistence and economic development. That would happen by employing Israel's technological superiority and the Arab world’s financial and human capabilities.
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At the time, the lies of Peres and his fellow Israeli politicians were crystal clear for those with thoughtful vision. The true purpose of this false proclamation was to dilute and bypass the Palestinians’ main demand for an independent state. In fact, it aimed to convince them to replace that demand with economic prosperity and the existence of an imaginary paradise.
Peres, who died in 2016 at the age of 93, was unable to spread and realize his illusions, till we reached the current “New Middle East” which will stay with us for many years.
It’s a Middle East mired in chaos and wars, and will be until new arrangements are in place, in which Israel will no longer be a sacred cow that kills and occupies people's lands without accountability thanks to the support it receives from the United States and European countries.
Since Israel's last war with the Arabs in 1973, and then Egypt's signing of the peace agreement with Israel in 1979, the rules of the game have practically changed. Israel neutralized the largest country in the Arab world and the largest army that could pose a real threat to Israel.
After that, Israel unleashed on neighboring countries — waging wars on Lebanon and repeatedly striking Syria without facing military resistance or paying a political price. All thanks to the weapons and diplomatic cover it receives from the U.S. and the West.
New rules for an old region
Perhaps the most important result of the Oct. 7 attack is that it established one of the features of the New Middle East. It’s true that Israel no longer faces traditional Arab armies, but rather it faces separate armed groups capable of inflicting heavy losses on it, without the need for F-35 fighters, armored tanks, or air defense systems costing tens of millions of dollars.
Such groups only need planning, intelligence information, and low-cost weapons. And on top of that, they are fighters — with a strong belief that they fight for liberating their homeland and seek martyrdom for the sake of God.
It is certain that the dramatic attacks between Israel and Iran earlier this month placed a new brick in the features of the New Middle East, in which Israel is no longer immune from long-range missile attacks, and is no longer the only party that is capable of launching attacks taking advantage of its unique advanced weapons.
In this context, the exaggerated verbal display by Netanyahu and his army leaders does not appear surprising. They affirmed their adherence to their sole right as decision-makers when it comes to their security, and that they only listen to their friends' advice, but they will do what they themselves deem necessary.
There are new rules of the game.
This approach has held up relatively well in the case of Israel’s genocidal war against the Palestinians in Gaza for more than six months. Netanyahu and his terrorist ministers continue to practice the worst types of killing and starvation, despite widespread international condemnation, including from their partners in the current U.S. administration.
But Israeli leaders were forced to follow the insistence of President Joe Biden's administration not to expand the confrontation with Iran, and open a regional war they do not want.
While the official accounts issued by Israel or Iran regarding the damage caused by the mutual strikes cannot be definitively trusted, what is certain is that the Iranian goal of these strikes has been achieved: A message that there are new rules of the game.
The Iranian missiles and drones that rained down on Israel and confused its army confirmed the error of its leaders’ calculations that Tehran would handle the attack on its consulate in Damascus as it did in previous incidents in which Israel targeted prominent Iranian military personnel in Syria.
As for the strike on Iran, which Tel Aviv did not officially claim, it aimed to confirm Israel's ability to reach the most important Iranian nuclear facility in Natanz, near Isfahan, deep inside Iran.
Smoke rises after an Israeli missile attack targeting the building of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, April 1, 2024.
Ammar Safarjalani/Xinhua/ZUMA
Risks and solutions
But what Israel and the United States are well aware of is that the danger they face from Iran in the new Middle East is not only the long-range missiles coming from Tehran. It also comes from its allies who receive its military and material support and are on the direct line of confrontation with the occupying entity.
Lebanon's Hezbollah and its loyal allies in Damascus and Iraq have proven their ability to launch missiles as far as the Israeli southernmost city of Eilat.
Israel is not the United States of America.
No matter how much Netanyahu displays and exaggerates Israel's military capabilities, he and Washington are aware that he is practically unable to wage a real war against Iran, because there is simply no direct front between them.
Israel is not the United States of America. Its army does not include hundreds of thousands of troops, and it does not have aircraft carriers that would enable it to besiege the coast of Iran and pose a real threat to Tehran.
Tehran also learned its lesson when Israel targeted the nuclear projects in Iraq and Syria many years ago. It fortified its nuclear facilities, and dispersed them across the country, so that they could not be all targeted with one or several limited strikes.
It is noteworthy that the official position adopted by the Biden administration before the recent Israeli-Iranian escalation is that it doesn’t seek a war with Iran. It also said it will not participate in any Israeli response to the Iran attack.
Oil prices up
While the genocidal war in Gaza did not lead to a hike in oil prices, the Iranian missiles did. After the Iranian attack, prices of oil soared, and the global stock market was volatile amid fears that the confrontation between Iran and Israel could escalate which would ultimately force the United States to intervene to protect its interests in the region.
Aside from its allied militias in the region that could further inflame the confrontation with Israel, Tehran’s ability to cause damage goes beyond that — including the possibility of closing the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the main artery for the passage of Gulf oil. Iran is also able to unsettle the Gulf monarchies, which are close U.S. allies.
Washington has always assured Israel that its decision to wage wars and ignite confrontations is not entirely its own decision. The question now is whether the ruling institutions in the United States have learned the lesson and realized that the main means of confronting Iran’s influence — if they really wanted to — is to pressure Israel to stop playing the role of the spoiled child who provokes unrest and wars all the time, and accept a final settlement with the Palestinians.
Washington should pressure Israel at least to ensure the cohesion of the American-Arab front that took part in repelling the Iranian missile attack on Israel for the first time.
