![Map displaying the Tercile Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook for JJAS 2024. North India shows above-normal rainfall in brown, while most of South and Central India show below-normal rainfall in blue.](https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/styles/prose_1x/public/2024-06/Tercile%20probabilistic%20rainfall%20outlook%20JJAS%202024.jpg?itok=gokuV7Ps)
Surface Precipitation Probabilistic outlook for June-September 2024
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The inaugural session of the Third Pole Climate Forum (TPCF), the first ever regional climate forum for a high mountain region, took place in China in early June and issued the first ever seasonal outlook for the summer season June to September 2024, which can help guide decision making and fill knowledge gaps.
Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the region, according to the forecast issued by experts at the session. Precipitation is likely to be near or above normal over most parts of the Third Pole region, although below normal in the western and southeastern parts.
The Third Pole is home to some of the biggest water towers in the world, feeding river basins which supply freshwater to hundreds of millions of people. Rapid changes in the cryosphere and the melting of the glaciers therefore have a major impact on both the high-mountain ecosystems and downstream regions.
In addition to an increase in hazards such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outbursts, glacier melt threatens the sustainability of agriculture and hydropower generation in the region.
“Given the transboundary nature of climate threats in the region, coupled with inadequate infrastructure, limited data, financial and human resources capacity in many of the Third Pole countries, a stronger regional collaboration and knowledge exchange is required,” says WMO Scientific Officer Anahit Hovsepyan.
To facilitate collaboration and address the unique requirements of the Third Pole region, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the region have jointly decided to establish the Third Pole Regional climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) which launched its demonstration phase and initiated the first session of TPCF, co-organized by Beijing Climate Centre and WMO on 4-6 June 2024 in Lijiang, China. Around 70 experts attended from 18 countries, including China, India and Pakistan playing lead roles in the TPRCC-Network.
The TPCF reviewed the state of climate over the region during the past winter and prepared an outlook for the upcoming summer season, consolidating information from multiple sources, and issued a joint statement with key highlights.
Surface Precipitation Probabilistic outlook for June-September 2024
Surface Air Temperature Probabilistic outlook for June-September 2024
The forum launched the demonstration phase of the Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) aiming to provide regional and subregional climate and cryosphere related products and services.
The TPRCC-Network Comprises three geographical nodes, with thematic responsibilities for mandatory functions for entire region:
ICIMOD, TPE, GCW, GEWEX – contributing partners
Overall coordination by the China Meteorological Administration
More information about TPCF1 is available on the TPRCC-Network website: Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) (rccra2.org)
Full Consensus Statement is available here: TPCF1-Consensus-Statement_en.pdf (rccra2.org)